Market outlook · Every quarter, the same

Unprecedented, again.

Economists agree the next recession will be unlike anything seen before, in exactly the way the last four were. It will arrive at about the time you finally buy a sofa that did not come off the pavement, and it will find the people with yachts already standing on them.

Track record

Your lifetime so far

2000

The dot-com crash

You were still at school. It did not seem to concern you. It concerned you.

2008

The Great Recession

You graduated into it. Entry-level jobs asked for five years of experience, which you were advised to get from an entry-level job.

2020

The pandemic

You learned to bake bread and met your friends in VR. Your rent did not notice either.

2022

Inflation

Eggs became an asset class. You briefly considered getting a chicken, then looked at what a chicken costs.

To be announced

Will land, as is now tradition, directly on your shoulders. Analysts recommend lifting with your legs, which is the only kind of lifting you will be doing from now on.

Case study

Little Timmy has two yachts

In 2021 a boy called Timmy, who has never worked a day in his life and still has not, put his birthday money into a coin with a dog on it. Timmy is now a billionaire. He owns two yachts, one for each coast, and plays League of Legends from the larger of them about fourteen hours a day. A crew of nine keeps the snacks coming. He is still in Silver.

You were in the same group chat. You saw the dog. You typed, and we have the screenshot, "lol no". You then went to your shift. That was the moment the doors to the upper class closed, and you were standing on the outside of them holding a meal-prep box. This one is on you.

We are not saying you should buy the next one. There is no next one. There was one dog, Timmy has it, and he sold at the top to people who are now in your bracket, where we are glad to welcome them.

Timmy's position	Value
Yacht, the big one Named after the dog	$140,000,000.00
Yacht, the other one For when the first yacht is being cleaned	$38,000,000.00
Gaming chair, gold-plated, gimballed against swell Still Silver IV	$41,000.00
Days worked Lifetime total	$0.00
Your position in the dog coin lol no — you, 2021	$0.00
The gap between you and Timmy, which is permanent	$178,041,000.00

0 Clients who saw the dog and said no

The data

Once-in-a-lifetime events, per lifetime

Measure	Events
Promised by the phrase once in a lifetime Per lifetime, as the name suggests	1.00
Experienced by the median client to date Not counting personal ones	4.00
Projected before retirement age Assuming retirement age continues to exist	6.00
Experienced by the median client's parents at the same age And they bought a house during it	1.00

Preparation

The recession readiness checklist

We cannot tell you when it will come. Nobody can, including the people paid a great deal to try. We can tell you what helps when it does, which turns out to be what helps the rest of the time too.

Step 1

Know your number

Add up what one bare month costs you: rent, bills, food, travel, minimum payments. That is the number your emergency fund is counting towards.

Step 2

Pay the card in full

High-interest debt grows fastest when money is tightest. Clear the most expensive one first.

Step 3

Build the pantry slowly

Two extra tins a week. Nobody needs a bunker. You need to be able to skip one big shop.

Step 4

Budget for the class you are in

Not the one on your feed, and not the one you were raised to expect. A budget built for the life you actually have is the one that survives. The yacht was never in the plan.

Step 5

Do not panic-buy toilet paper

We have all been through this. You know what you did.

0 Millennials currently bracing